Q3 Victorian Property Market Update from Cameron Kusher

Cameron Kusher - Property Economist

October 2025

Cameron Kusher has spent 20 years analysing Australia's property markets, most recently as Head of Research at REA and Cotality (previously CoreLogic). In this update, he examines the latest Victorian data and what it signals for buyers and sellers entering the spring market.

The September 2025 quarter marked the beginning of strengthening demand and growth in median prices across Victoria. This momentum is good news for homeowners patiently waiting for their next move.

According to the latest data from the Real Estate Institute of Victoria, median house prices in Melbourne rose 2.7 per cent over the September 2025 quarter to reach $954,500 and median unit and apartment prices were 2.1 per cent higher, rising to $645,500. This renewed market strength after a period of price correction in 2024, is underpinned by interest rate cuts, population growth and infrastructure investment, creating exciting opportunities for the remainder of 2025 and beyond.

In regional Victoria, median house prices were 2.5 per cent higher over the quarter reaching $636,500. Median unit and apartment prices in regional Victoria were 1.4 per cent higher over the quarter rising to $434,000. A sign buyers outside of these areas are rediscovering genuine opportunities in lifestyle-focused communities once again.

The growth in prices, particularly in Melbourne, is much stronger than what has been seen over recent years and speaks to the impact of lower mortgage rates, following three cash rate cuts since the start of 2025, improving sentiment, and the affordability of Victorian housing relative to most other major population areas of the country. As Melbourne's long-term investment reputation remains strong, this represents a meaningful window of opportunity for buyers and investors who have been watching and waiting.

Metropolitan Melbourne

While demand for properties is lifting, unfortunately the number of properties available for sale has trended lower. The latest monthly listings data from SQM Research found that at the end of September 2025 there were 37,867 properties for sale in Melbourne which was 5.9 per cent lower than the previous year.

The volume of stock for sale is tightening, whilst new listing volumes will likely increase over the coming months there looks to be ample demand to soak up those listings. For those considering selling, this tighter market means increased competitive interest, a seller's advantage we don't see every cycle.

Although properties for sale has trended lower across the state, Jellis Craig is bucking this trend. Throughout the Jellis Craig network in metro Melbourne, compared to the same period last year there were 13 per cent more listings and 14 per cent more sales. With the increase in stock and sales, the open for inspections saw 18 per cent more groups through.

Regional Victoria

Comparing the September 2025 quarter to the September 2024 quarter, across the regional Jellis Craig network, there were 6 per cent more listings. The number of groups through was 45 per cent higher over the year and sales volumes rose by 82 per cent.

The regional Jellis Craig network is located in highly sought after areas and properties in these areas are becoming more popular as highlighted by the significant rise in open home attendances and sales volumes.

Demand for housing in regional Victoria surged during the Covid-19 pandemic as people looked to escape the city and enjoy a better lifestyle. Over the past few years this trend has slowed dramatically but based on this data we’re seeing demand for properties in highly desirable regional markets starting to rise once more, a trend expected to continue.

The data points to a strengthening of interest in Victorian property, particularly within the areas in which Jellis Craig offices are located.

Importantly, the increase in sales, listings and interest in property across the network came with an interest rate cut closer to the end of the quarter than the start, and with just one month of the spring selling season included.

These strong results also occurred before the commencement of the Home Guarantee Scheme which is widely expected to increase housing demand and push prices higher.

The biggest challenge remains the volume of stock available for sale across the state. If the low stock levels persist at this time of rising demand, it is likely to see selling conditions continue to improve whilst maintaining competitive conditions for would-be purchasers.

With Victoria offering attractive rental returns in some areas and strong affordability compared to other major metropolitan and regional markets it is expected to see demand for Victorian properties strengthen over the coming quarter.