Q2 Market Update: Confidence beyond the headlines
Andrew McCann - Chief Executive Officer & Jellis Craig Foundation Chair
July 2026If you’ve been following the headlines, you could be forgiven for thinking Melbourne’s property market is experiencing a period of softening. What we're seeing across the Jellis Craig network, however, paints a more encouraging picture.
The market has certainly tempered somewhat since March, driven by a combination of higher interest rates, cost-of-living pressures, forecasted tax changes and broader economic uncertainty stemming from global conflict. After several years of extraordinary conditions, we’re seeing a return to a more balanced environment, with buyers and sellers taking a more measured approach.
Higher borrowing costs have reduced borrowing capacity for some buyers, and that has naturally flowed through to pricing in parts of Melbourne and regional locations. At the same time, we’re seeing well-informed buyers recognise the opportunity presented by reduced competition and greater choice, with many choosing to upgrade their primary residence during this period.
We’re seeing this reflected across the Jellis Craig network, where our results continue to outperform the broader market. Our median sale price reached $1,350,000¹in Q2, well ahead of the market median of $952,500². Sales activity also strengthened over the quarter, with the number of properties sold across our network increasing by 2.4 per cent in Q2³ versus the previous quarter, providing further evidence that well-positioned and presented homes continue to attract confident buyers.
Overall, the picture remains far more positive than the headlines suggest. Behind the short-term shifts, Melbourne’s fundamentals remain exceptionally strong. The city continues to offer outstanding value compared with other Australian capitals, supported by robust population growth, sustained infrastructure investment and an exceptional lifestyle.
Investors adapt to changing conditions
On the investment side, recent rental law reforms as well as negative gearing and capital gains tax changes have slowed the flow of new investors into the property market. However, demand for rental housing remains exceptionally strong amongst renters, with vacancy rates sitting at historic lows across metropolitan Melbourne and regional Victoria. The ongoing housing shortage continues to underpin demand despite broader economic pressures, reinforcing the long-term appeal of investing in residential property.
These fundamentals continue to support strong rental activity across our property management network. Weekly asking rents for Jellis Craig properties in metropolitan Melbourne sit roughly 15 per cent above market levels⁴ - a reflection of both the calibre of homes we represent and the sustained demand for well-located, quality housing.
The right time is your time
Over my 30-year career in real estate, people have always asked me when the right time is to buy or sell property. The reality is that trying to time the market perfectly is incredibly difficult - even for the experts.
Market conditions are always worth understanding, but they should rarely be the sole reason for making - or delaying a property decision. There are opportunities in every cycle, whether you’re buying your first home, upgrading, downsizing or investing for the future.
Ultimately, the right time isn’t determined by headlines or auction clearance rates. It’s when your personal circumstances, financial position, and motivations align. As a trusted authority on Victoria’s property market, Jellis Craig regularly provides clients with the expert insight they need to move forward with confidence. Whenever that time comes, Jellis Craig is your connection to something greater.
We hope this market update has informed your property journey. Whether you are looking to buy, sell or rent your property, contact us today to learn more.
1. Jellis Craig Data, Median Sale Price, Greater Melbourne, 01/04/2026 – 30/06/2026
2. REIV, Median Sale Price, Greater Melbourne, 01/04/2026 – 30/06/2026
3. Jellis Craig Data, Properties Sold, 01/04/2026 – 30/06/2026
4. Jellis Craig Data, Median asking rent, Greater Melbourne, 01/04/2026 – 30/06/2026 / REIV, Median asking rent, Greater Melbourne, 01/04/2026 – 30/06/2026
