We sat down with our Mornington Peninsula directors to explore how the past year has unfolded and what lies ahead for the local property market.
How has the Mornington Peninsula property market performed in the last 12 months?
The Mornington Peninsula has delivered flat to modest growth. Some suburbs recorded small gains, particularly in the unit market. On the other hand, the discretionary holiday home segment softened, with days on market stretching as listings increased. Buyer confidence improved into early 2026, before easing amid rate uncertainty. The rental market has been consistent, with properties leasing quickly and a vacancy rate of 1.0%.
The Mornington Peninsula is moving from flat conditions into an accelerating growth phase. Premium markets will recover first, led by downsizers and equity-rich buyers.
Which suburbs on the Mornington Peninsula look best placed for stability over the next 12 months?
Mornington is the Peninsula’s most liquid and diverse market, with a broad buyer pool and steady rental demand supporting sales and investment. As a premium coastal suburb offering limited supply, high desirability and an affluent buyer pool, Mount Martha remains resilient to downturns. Rosebud, Capel Sound, Tootgarook and Rye offer more accessible entry points, with ongoing gentrification and redevelopment underpinning values.
How do you expect the Mornington Peninsula market will respond to further potential cash rate adjustments?
Rate increases will delay activity rather than destroy demand. The area’s lifestyle appeal, supply constraints and relative value mean it rebounds faster than broader Melbourne once conditions improve. Pent-up demand is likely to release quickly once rates stabilise or fall.
Median property prices
Cotality, 01/04/2025 - 31/03/2026 Where a suburb is split across a LGA, the whole suburb has been used to determine a median. Where there are insufficient sales within a suburb over a 12-month period, a median price has not been calculated.Mornington Peninsula
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Blairgowrie
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Mornington
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Mount Martha
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Portsea
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Rye
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Sorrento
Median days on market
Cotality, 01/04/2025 - 31/03/2026Mornington Peninsula
Rental yield
Cotality, 01/04/2025 - 31/03/2026Mornington Peninsula
Current population
Source: ABS Census 2021 DataMornington Peninsula
- Houses
- Units
Metropolitan Melbourne’s vacancy rate is sitting at 1.6%. Mornington is significantly tighter at 1.0%. What does this high rental demand mean for investors?
An extremely tight rental market means consistent income, strong tenant demand and upward pressure on rents. Properties are leasing faster, and yields are holding, offsetting purchase prices. It is a rental providers’ market, with reliable income and support for long-term price growth.
Victoria is on track to add 1.2 million residents over the next decade, with many flocking to regional lifestyle locations. Why is the Mornington Peninsula so attractive?
The Mornington Peninsula offers beaches, wineries and a coastal lifestyle without leaving Melbourne’s orbit. Green wedge protections restrict overdevelopment, keeping supply tight and supporting long-term values. The area appeals to downsizers, families, investors and sea-changers, delivering more space and lifestyle than inner Melbourne at comparable prices.
Ownership
ABS Census 2021 DataMornington Peninsula
- Own
- 42%
- Purchasing
- 35%
- Rent
- 19%
- Other
- 4%
- Own
- Purchasing
- Rent
- Other
Dwelling type
ABS Census 2021 DataMornington Peninsula
- House
- 86%
- Semi detached
- 11%
- Unit / apartment
- 3%
- House
- Semi detached
- Unit / apartment
What does FY27 and beyond look like for the Mornington Peninsula property market?
The Mornington Peninsula is moving from flat conditions into an accelerating growth phase. Premium markets will recover first, led by downsizers and equity-rich buyers, and days on market will tighten as confidence builds. Rental growth is expected to continue, with moderate yields and tight vacancy.
Fast Four with Adam Dureau
Favourite street
The Esplanade, Mount Martha.
Local secret
Bodega Wine Bar, Dromana and the Balcombe Creek Estuary Boardwalk.
Design focus
Floor-to-ceiling windows framing Port Phillip Bay, basketball courts, saunas and cold plunge spaces.
One to watch
Single-level homes in the beachside areas of Mount Martha and Mornington are always in high demand, with consistently low supply.
